With the financial crisis gathering strength and spreading to the real economy, it is instructive to learn the lessons from the Nordic crisis of the mid -990s. There are some important similarities today: but also some important differences.
All that said, however, the challenges facing banks today require a broader set of instruments than those used by the Nordic authorities 20 years ago, for two main reasons:
First, the situation for banks is more complex. The authorities have to distinguish more clearly between insolvent banks and banks that are solvent but in need of more capital in order to increase lending. The lessons from the Nordic banking crisis can be drawn on for the insolvent banks. For the solvent banks, the challenge is to maintain their lending capacity. This is particularly important given that other credit markets are not functioning normally, so that it is difficult, or impossible, for businesses to acquire funding directly from bond markets. But without more capital, the banks are not willing to accept new loans on their balance sheets. The main challenge facing the authorities today therefore is to ensure that solvent banks increase their financial strength and thereby their lending capacity. At the same time, it is important to have an exit strategy so that capital injections today do not translate into an increase in state ownership when the crisis is over.
Second, cross-border banking has been increasing. Twenty years ago, all the main Nordic banks were national banks. Today, for example, four of the five largest banks in Norway are foreign-owned (three branches and one subsidiary). A national authority cannot be expected to bolster the financial strength of branches of foreign banks: indeed, it could be complicated to do this even for foreign-owned subsidiaries. While we were able to choose national solutions to the banking crisis 20 years ago, any effective solution to today's situation will require an internationally harmonised approach.
As today's financial crisis progressively gets resolved, it will be necessary to start the process of preventing future crises. This will require substantial reform of the regulatory framework. Banks will have to strengthen their capital and their liquidity buffers. And financial regulation must have a less pro-cyclical effect. The objective must be to enable the banks to curb the impact of shocks on the economy, rather than to amplify them, as is the case now, where negative spirals are generated between the financial system and the real economy.
Because of the global character of today's financial crisis, the authorities must work in concert to find solutions, both in terms of recapitalisation of the banks and regulation of the financial sector.
The writer is governor of Norges Bank, Norway's central bank
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